PattonandCo.com: Talk Baseball Players Now
Projecting X is Mike Podhorzer's excellent description of how he makes his very successful player projections. You can learn more about it at projectingx.com.
Category Archives: Data
Comparing the 2015 Tout Auction to 2015 Tout Draft’s Dollar Values. What?
If you order the auction dollar values from most expensive to least expensive, then overlay them on the player selection order in a draft, you get a dollar value for each draft pick. That’s what I’ve done with this year’s Tout Wars Mixed Draft (March 10) and Auction (March 21). (more…)
Posted in Auction, Data, Draft, Looking Back, Prices
How Much A Difference Does Moving From BA to OBP Make?
Votto: Keeping a good eye on the base on balls. Tout Wars Weekend is coming up, which means thinking about On Base Percentage. The Tout Wars leagues use 5×5 OBP instead of 5×5 BA, which can change player values a surprising amount. There was a lot of talk last year (more…)
Deriving Dollar Values from Mock Drafts
This past week I participated in two NL-only roto mock drafts. Yes, drafts. The beauty of a draft is that there is only one path to the promised land. Select the best player available for your team, from the next 12 players to be taken. A 12-team NL-only draft should (more…)
Finding Undervalued Pitchers: More Data, Fewer Undervalued Pitchers
I’ve been writing this week about some comparisons I was making with 2013 pitching metrics and 2014 data. One strong takeaway was an indication that fantasy owners weren’t valuing pitchers with low walk rates enough. Details here. One weak takeaway was an indication that fantasy owners weren’t valuing pitchers with (more…)
Posted in Data, Projections
Finding Undervalued Pitchers: SIERA and FIP
Yesterday we ran correlations between various pitching metrics and fantasy baseball profits for pitchers, and found that most of the ways we evaluate pitchers—like strikeouts and ERA—influence a pitcher’s cost so much that they don’t help us predict profits. But we did discover that a pitcher’s walk rate wasn’t fully (more…)
Posted in Data, Math, Prices, Projections
Finding Undervalued Pitchers: Walk Rate
After I finished my look at correlation between 2013 pitching stats and 2014 fantasy baseball profits, I just had to look at which pitchers might bubble up this year because of their low walk rates last year. Hisashi Iwakuma, Jordan Zimmerman, Doug Fister, David Price, Masahiro Tanaka, and Clayton Kershaw (more…)
Posted in Data, Looking Back, Projections
Finding Undervalued Pitchers: Fun with Correl!
My buddy Mike Salfino, who writes about baseball (both real and fantasy) at the Wall Street Journal and Yahoo!, loves (K-BB)/IP to evaluate pitchers, and to find those delightfully undervalued arms that help teams (both real and fantasy) win. I like (K-BB)/IP, too, but in talking about it I haven’t (more…)
Posted in Data, Looking Back, Prices
End of Season Roto Prices for 2014.
These are 5×5 BA prices for a 24 team mixed league. The top 336 hitters have positive value, as do the top 216 pitchers. These are the prices you would pay if you were having a retrospective draft, buying the 2014 stats today. These are first pass prices. They have (more…)
Roto Prices Through the End of August!
The latest monthly earnings report is posted here. Remember that these are 5×5 (BA) prices based on the full league budget of $3120 per team in a 12 team only league. These are made on the fly, so they give positive values to the Top 108 pitchers and the Top (more…)
End of July Roto Prices Posted.
A new format, for a good reason. This month we present the preseason price for each hitter and pitcher, and the end of month earnings for each. You can access the sheet here. They’re sorted by biggest dollar gains to biggest losers, which is a rough approximation of last month’s (more…)
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