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PattonandCo.com: Talk Baseball Players NowProjecting X is Mike Podhorzer's excellent description of how he makes his very successful player projections. You can learn more about it at projectingx.com.
Category Archives: Math
Finding Undervalued Pitchers: SIERA and FIP
Yesterday we ran correlations between various pitching metrics and fantasy baseball profits for pitchers, and found that most of the ways we evaluate pitchers—like strikeouts and ERA—influence a pitcher’s cost so much that they don’t help us predict profits. But we did discover that a pitcher’s walk rate wasn’t fully (more…)
Posted in Data, Math, Prices, Projections
LINK: A lesson in variance, as much as anything.
The Hardball Times is running a series of articles by their writers about what they learned doing a project. Dan Szymborski wrote about projecting player performance and Mitchel Lichtman wrote about defensive statistics. Very good stuff. A guy named Matt Hunter writes about creating a baseball simulator, which he has done, (more…)
Top 10 Most Misunderstood Fantasy Baseball Concepts: No. 1. The Salary Cap
$260 per team. $3120 per league. These are the bedrock facts of Rotisserie baseball pricing. The NL screwed things up for a while, when 16 teams led most roto leagues to play with 13 teams. $3380 doesn’t resonate quite the same way, but the principle is quite the same when (more…)
Posted in Games, Math, Top 10 Misunderstood
BASICS: How To Calculate Draft Inflation
A reader asked about this at Ask Rotoman today. The link gives you his question and the full answer. Here’re the basics: In a keeper league (4×4 or 5×5 doesn’t matter), where inexpensive players are carried over from one year to the next, you need to adjust the startup prices (more…)
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