Deriving Dollar Values from Mock Drafts

Posted on March 8, 2015 | Leave a comment

This past week I participated in two NL-only roto mock drafts. Yes, drafts.

The beauty of a draft is that there is only one path to the promised land. Select the best player available for your team, from the next 12 players to be taken.

A 12-team NL-only draft should be a good proxy for auction values, once you attach a descending order price list for the NL. The surprising thing, when you do this, is the discovery that a 20 place difference in Draft Position is the equivalent of maybe $2 in an auction.

That’s the difference between making a bid on a guy you really want and getting raised a buck. If you have the dough, you bump it one more. That’s the difference between 96th and 77th.

The problem with putting dollar values to ADP is that every draft room has a draft list, and it’s super hard for players to consistently break away from the suggested list. Not that folks slavishly pick from the top spot, but if a guy you like for 20 picks down the road shows up in the Top 10 recommended by the site, you know you have to take him, or lose him.

That’s a decision we all have to deal with when we’re mocking, or drafting on one of these sites, which is fine, but it does add noise to when a player was drafted when it is then converted to a dollar value.

The two NL-only mocks I participated in this week were conducted on different services. The Fantasy Alarm Mock Draft Army mock was conducted on CBSsports. The RotoWorld cxperts mock was conducted on RTsports.

The Correlation between the two drafts was .938. Pretty similar.

The Correlation between the RotoWorld mock and an ordered list of NL-only draft values from 2014 was .947.

The Correlation between the Fantasy Alarm mock and an ordered list of NL-only draft values from 2014 was .950.

We’re all mostly working off the same list, it seems. It’s just what we do with it that differs.

Oh, and how the players perform. That’s the wild card. Or rather, them’s the wild cards.

Here are the results of my two NL-only mocks, with superimposed dollar values. I’ll have more to say later about the discrepancies.

RANK FULL Team Pos Rotoworld MDarmy $
1 Andrew McCutchen PIT OF 2 1 $38
2 Giancarlo Stanton MIA OF 3 3 $36
3 Paul Goldschmidt AZ 1B 4 2 $36
4 Clayton Kershaw LAD SP 1 7 $34
5 Carlos Gomez MIL OF 5 4 $33
6 Anthony Rendon WSH 3B 6 5 $32
7 Anthony Rizzo CHC 1B 7 8 $31
8 Ryan Braun MIL OF 8 11 $30
9 Yasiel Puig LAD OF 9 10 $30
10 Troy Tulowitzki COL SS 10 9 $30
11 Ian Desmond WSH SS 11 12 $29
12 Buster Posey SF C 17 6 $29
13 Bryce Harper WSH OF 12 14 $29
14 Max Scherzer WSH SP 14 18 $28
15 Nolan Arenado COL 3B 15 19 $28
16 Stephen Strasburg WSH SP 13 24 $27
17 Freddie Freeman ATL 1B 16 22 $27
18 Madison Bumgarner SF SP 18 20 $27
19 Justin Upton SD OF 21 17 $27
20 Starling Marte PIT OF 25 16 $26
21 Johnny Cueto CIN SP 20 25 $26
22 Todd Frazier CIN 3B 22 23 $26
23 Corey Dickerson COL OF 29 21 $26
24 Carlos Gonzalez COL OF 23 30 $26
25 Adrian Gonzalez LAD 1B 19 37 $25
26 Cole Hamels PHI SP 27 29 $25
27 Jonathan Lucroy MIL C 30 32 $25
28 Matt Kemp SD OF 48 15 $25
29 Billy Hamilton CIN OF 24 41 $25
30 Ben Revere PHI OF 40 27 $25
31 David Wright NYM 3B 41 28 $24
32 Hunter Pence SF OF 28 44 $24
33 Dee Gordon MIA 2B 26 50 $24
34 Starlin Castro CHC SS 31 46 $23
35 Kolten Wong STL 2B 34 45 $23
36 Marcell Ozuna MIA OF 46 33 $22
37 Zack Greinke LAD SP 32 48 $22
38 Jason Heyward STL OF 37 43 $22
39 Christian Yelich MIA OF 42 38 $22
40 Ryan Zimmerman WSH 1B 44 36 $22
41 Aroldis Chapman CIN RP 49 31 $21
42 Matt Holliday STL OF 33 49 $21
43 Craig Kimbrel ATL RP 47 35 $21
44 Joey Votto CIN 1B 36 47 $21
45 Jordan Zimmermann WSH SP 45 42 $21
46 Jon Lester CHC SP 50 40 $21
47 Matt Carpenter STL 3B 59 34 $21
48 Devin Mesoraco CIN C 38 56 $21
49 Adam Wainwright STL SP 35 63 $20
50 Jay Bruce CIN OF 39 60 $20
51 Daniel Murphy NYM 2B 53 54 $20
52 Jorge Soler CHC OF 52 57 $19
53 Gregory Polanco PIT OF 58 59 $19
54 Julio Teheran ATL SP 60 58 $19
55 Josh Harrison PIT 3B 66 53 $19
56 Mark Trumbo AZ 1B 69 51 $19
57 Gerrit Cole PIT SP 54 67 $19
58 Mark Melancon PIT RP 63 62 $19
59 James Shields SD SP 64 61 $18
60 Charlie Blackmon COL OF 43 83 $18
61 Matt Harvey NYM SP 57 73 $18
62 Howie Kendrick LAD 2B 62 68 $18
63 Yadier Molina STL C 55 76 $18
64 Brandon Belt SF 1B 65 69 $18
65 Jhonny Peralta STL SS 61 74 $18
66 Jake Arrieta CHC SP 71 66 $17
67 Trevor Rosenthal STL RP 84 55 $17
68 Neil Walker PIT 2B 56 85 $17
69 Lucas Duda NYM 1B 72 71 $17
70 Alex Wood ATL SP 79 70 $17
71 Steve Cishek MIA RP 80 72 $17
72 Matt Adams STL 1B 51 102 $17
73 Jacob DeGrom NYM SP 74 81 $17
74 Jimmy Rollins LAD SS 70 86 $16
75 Tyson Ross SD SP 92 64 $16
76 Jean Segura MIL SS 73 88 $16
77 Wil Myers SD OF 83 80 $16
78 Lance Lynn STL SP 77 87 $16
79 Kenley Jansen LAD RP 82 89 $16
80 Wilin Rosario COL C 96 77 $15
81 Pedro Alvarez PIT 1B 81 93 $15
82 Gio Gonzalez WSH SP 99 75 $15
83 Jayson Werth WSH OF 91 84 $15
84 Justin Morneau COL 1B 86 92 $15
85 Denard Span WSH OF 68 112 $15
86 A.J. Pollock AZ OF 87 94 $15
87 Yasmany Tomas AZ OF 67 119 $15
88 Aramis Ramirez MIL 3B 98 90 $15
89 Hyun-Jin Ryu LAD SP 111 79 $15
90 Kris Bryant CHC 3B 76 115 $15
91 Joaquin Benoit SD RP 88 103 $15
92 Travis d’Arnaud NYM C 75 118 $15
93 Martin Prado MIA 3B 97 100 $15
94 Ian Kennedy SD SP 115 82 $15
95 Jonathan Papelbon PHI RP 105 96 $14
96 Chase Utley PHI 2B 108 95 $14
97 Drew Storen WSH RP 78 126 $14
98 Zack Wheeler NYM SP 89 117 $14
99 Francisco Rodriguez MIL RP 93 113 $14
100 Doug Fister WSH SP 109 98 $14
101 Joc Pederson LAD OF 85 124 $14
102 Hector Rondon CHC RP 94 116 $13
103 Khris Davis MIL OF 104 110 $13
104 Yasmani Grandal LAD C 102 114 $13
105 Michael Wacha STL SP 117 99 $13
106 Andrew Cashner SD SP 121 97 $13
107 Chris Owings AZ SS 122 101 $13
108 Wilson Ramos WSH C 103 121 $12
109 Michael Morse MIA 1B 95 132 $12
110 Miguel Montero CHC C 100 127 $12
111 Javier Baez CHC 2B 107 120 $12
112 Derek Norris SD C 101 128 $12
113 Santiago Casilla SF RP 90 141 $11
114 Jedd Gyorko SD 2B 114 123 $11
115 Brandon McCarthy LAD SP 110 129 $11
116 Carl Crawford LAD OF 113 134 $11
117 Mike Fiers MIL SP 137 111 $11
118 Scooter Gennett MIL 2B 118 131 $11
119 Dexter Fowler CHC OF 112 139 $10
120 Curtis Granderson NYM OF 119 133 $10
121 Arismendy Alcantara CHC OF 106 150 $10
122 Cliff Lee PHI SP 134 125 $10
123 Marlon Byrd CIN OF 120 144 $10
124 Angel Pagan SF OF 123 142 $10
125 Jordy Mercer PIT SS 128 137 $10
126 Jarrod Saltalamacchia MIA C 129 138 $10
127 Mat Latos MIA SP 132 136 $10
128 Adam Lind MIL 1B 116 153 $10
129 Jenrry Mejia NYM RP 140 130 $10
130 Brandon Crawford SF SS 126 156 $10
131 Brandon Phillips CIN 2B 139 143 $9
132 Addison Reed AZ RP 144 140 $9
133 Drew Stubbs COL OF 136 149 $9
134 Aaron Hill AZ 2B 124 162 $9
135 Nick Markakis ATL OF 127 165 $9
136 Matt Cain SF SP 135 159 $9
137 Yonder Alonso SD 1B 149 145 $9
138 Jose Fernandez MIA SP 151 146 $9
139 Norichika Aoki SF OF 141 157 $9
140 Jung-Ho Kang PIT SS 125 175 $9
141 Michael Cuddyer NYM OF 131 169 $9
142 Andrelton Simmons ATL SS 145 160 $9
143 Casey McGehee SF 3B 143 164 $8
144 Francisco Liriano PIT SP 155 154 $8
145 Domonic Brown PHI OF 158 152 $8
146 Homer Bailey CIN SP 159 151 $8
147 Ryan Howard PHI 1B 154 163 $8
148 Kyle Lohse MIL SP 172 147 $8
149 Juan Lagares NYM OF 130 190 $8
150 Wilmer Flores NYM SS 153 168 $8
151 John Lackey STL SP 142 182 $8
152 Maikel Franco PHI 3B 157 170 $8
153 Shelby Miller ATL SP 152 176 $8
154 Yunel Escobar WSH SS 150 179 $8
155 Jon Jay STL OF 138 193 $8
156 Melvin Upton ATL OF 148 189 $8
157 DJ LeMahieu COL 2B 146 192 $8
158 Ken Giles PHI RP 167 172 $8
159 Chris Johnson ATL 3B 168 171 $7
160 Joe Panik SF 2B 174 167 $7
161 Jose Peraza ATL 2B 165 177 $7
162 Carlos Ruiz PHI C 178 166 $7
163 Yangervis Solarte SD 3B 161 184 $7
164 Mike Leake CIN SP 190 155 $7
165 Jason Hammel CHC SP 173 173 $7
166 David Peralta AZ OF 164 186 $7
167 LaTroy Hawkins COL RP 162 197 $7
168 Francisco Cervelli PIT C 133 228 $7
169 Henderson Alvarez MIA SP 175 188 $7
170 Jake Peavy SF SP 183 180 $7
171 Mike Minor ATL SP 186 178 $7
172 Chris Coghlan CHC OF 163 204 $7
173 Alexi Amarista SD SS 171 196 $6
174 Christian Bethancourt ATL C 189 181 $6
175 Wily Peralta MIL SP 181 191 $6
176 Juan Uribe LAD 3B 166 209 $6
177 Eric Young ATL OF 147 229 $6
178 Tanner Roark WSH SP 222 158 $6
179 Cody Asche PHI 3B 169 212 $6
180 Andre Ethier LAD OF 180 201 $6
181 Jake Lamb AZ 3B 201 183 $6
182 Kyle Hendricks CHC SP 200 185 $6
183 Grady Sizemore PHI OF 194 195 $6
184 Matt Garza MIL SP 193 202 $6
185 Carlos Martinez STL RP 185 211 $6
186 Ender Inciarte AZ OF 182 220 $5
187 Michael Taylor WSH OF 205 198 $5
188 Nick Hundley COL C 179 226 $5
189 A.J. Burnett PIT SP 184 222 $5
190 Will Middlebrooks SD 3B 160 247 $5
191 Gerardo Parra MIL OF 176 239 $5
192 Scott Van Slyke LAD OF 209 206 $5
193 Jimmy Nelson MIL SP 211 205 $5
194 Jonathon Niese NYM SP 216 208 $5
195 Tim Hudson SF SP 202 225 $5
196 Josh Collmenter AZ SP 208 219 $5
197 Jarred Cosart MIA SP 191 240 $5
198 Welington Castillo CHC C 207 224 $5
199 Ichiro Suzuki MIA OF 227 207 $5
200 Alex Guerrero LAD 2B 156 279 $5
201 Adeiny Hechavarria MIA SS 188 248 $4
202 Will Venable SD OF 187 250 $4
203 Michael McKenry COL C 177 263 $4
204 Dan Haren MIA SP 198 242 $4
205 Jorge De La Rosa COL SP 196 245 $4
206 Tuffy Gosewisch AZ C 204 241 $4
207 Yusmeiro Petit SF SP 225 221 $4
208 Pete O’Brien AZ C 170 277 $4
209 Mark Reynolds STL 1B 218 232 $4
210 Alberto Callaspo ATL 2B 221 230 $4
211 Noah Syndergaard NYM SP 228 227 $4
212 Brett Anderson LAD SP 220 237 $4
213 Andrew Susac SF C 224 233 $4
214 Tony Cingrani CIN SP 206 253 $3
215 Bobby Parnell NYM RP 192 268 $3
216 Jonny Gomes ATL OF 195 265 $3
217 Darin Ruf PHI 1B 203 259 $3
218 Gregor Blanco SF OF 267 199 $3
219 Randal Grichuk STL OF 264 203 $3
220 Bartolo Colon NYM SP 199 272 $3
221 Kevin Quackenbush SD RP 235 236 $3
222 Sergio Romo SF RP 237 235 $3
223 Patrick Corbin AZ SP 238 234 $3
224 Zack Cozart CIN SS 231 243 $3
225 Adam Ottavino COL RP 197 277 $3
226 Casey Janssen WSH RP 230 251 $3
227 A.J. Ellis LAD C 214 269 $3
228 Chase Anderson AZ SP 212 275 $3
229 Albert Almora CHC OF 210 277 $3
230 Chris Denorfia CHC OF 295 194 $3
231 Tim Lincecum SF SP 239 252 $3
232 John Axford COL RP 219 277 $3
233 Vance Worley PIT SP 217 284 $2
234 Tommy Medica SD 1B 253 249 $2
235 Charlie Morton PIT SP 226 277 $2
236 J.T. Realmuto MIA C 245 260 $2
237 Jeremy Hellickson AZ SP 213 293 $2
238 Corey Hart PIT DH 229 277 $2
239 Sean Rodriguez PIT 2B 284 223 $2
240 Jace Peterson ATL 2B 232 277 $2
241 Justin Turner LAD 3B 246 264 $2
242 Derek Dietrich MIA 2B 234 277 $2
243 Ruben Tejada NYM RP 301 210 $2
244 Peter Bourjos STL OF 215 298 $2
245 Carlos Quentin SD OF 223 290 $2
246 Marco Gonzales STL SP 236 277 $2
247 Anthony DeSclafani CIN SP 240 277 $2
248 Tommy La Stella CHC 2B 233 285 $2
249 Travis Ishikawa SF 1B 247 271 $2
250 Kelly Johnson ATL 3B 241 277 $2
251 A.J. Pierzynski ATL C 242 277 $2
252 Brandon Morrow SD SP 243 277 $2
253 Freddy Galvis PHI SS 244 277 $2
254 Tsuyoshi Wada CHC SP 248 277 $2
255 Eugenio Suarez CIN SS 249 277 $2
256 Mike Foltynewicz ATL RP 251 277 $2
257 Tony Watson PIT RP 263 266 $2
258 Dian Toscano ATL OF 254 277 $2
259 Daniel Hudson AZ RP 256 277 $2
260 Jameson Taillon PIT SP 257 277 $2
261 Cameron Maybin SD OF 274 261 $2
262 Dilson Herrera NYM 2B 281 254 $2
263 Tom Koehler MIA SP 270 267 $1
264 Odubel Herrera PHI OF 260 277 $1
265 Allen Webster AZ SP 262 277 $1
266 Jeurys Familia SD RP 301 238 $1
267 Archie Bradley AZ SP 252 289 $1
268 Josh Johnson SD SP 297 246 $1
269 Odrisamer Despaigne SD SP 266 277 $1
270 Eury Perez ATL OF 268 277 $1
271 Brandon Maurer SD RP 255 291 $1
272 Aaron Barrett WSH RP 269 277 $1
273 Rafael Montero NYM SP 271 277 $1
274 Jaime Garcia STL SP 250 299 $1
275 Cody Ross AZ OF 272 277 $1
276 David Phelps MIA SP 273 277 $1
277 Raisel Iglesias CIN SP 275 277 $1
278 Jordan Lyles COL SP 276 277 $1
279 Dillon Gee NYM SP 277 277 $1
280 Danny Espinosa WSH 2B 278 277 $1
281 Joel Peralta LAD RP 279 277 $1
282 Shawn Kelley WSH RP 301 255 $1
283 Brandon Beachy LAD SP 280 277 $1
284 Rafael Soriano ATL C 301 256 $1
285 Jose Lobaton WSH C 265 294 $1
286 Robbie Erlin SD SP 282 277 $1
287 Ryan Doumit SD LF 301 258 $1
288 Rubby De La Rosa AZ SP 283 277 $1
289 Travis Wood CHC SP 261 300 $1
290 Ryan Vogelsong SF SP 258 304 $1

 

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