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PattonandCo.com: Talk Baseball Players NowProjecting X is Mike Podhorzer's excellent description of how he makes his very successful player projections. You can learn more about it at projectingx.com.
Category Archives: Top 10 Misunderstood
Top 10 Most Misunderstood Fantasy Baseball Concepts: No. 1. The Salary Cap
$260 per team. $3120 per league. These are the bedrock facts of Rotisserie baseball pricing. The NL screwed things up for a while, when 16 teams led most roto leagues to play with 13 teams. $3380 doesn’t resonate quite the same way, but the principle is quite the same when (more…)
Posted in Games, Math, Top 10 Misunderstood
Top 10 Most Misunderstood Fantasy Baseball Misconceptions: Leading Indicators
When I think of a Leading Indicator I think of something that changes ahead of a change in results. Like when a player reports to spring training in the best shape of his life. Kidding, at least some of the time. One of the first of these I looked at (more…)
Posted in Basics, Free, Top 10 Misunderstood
Top 10 Most Misunderstood Fantasy Baseball Concepts: #3. Saves and Steals
We obsess about Saves and Steals. The Closers chart is a staple of fantasy baseball sites, and while no one lusts after one-dimensional speed guys, like Rajai Davis, our special roto-sense keeps us on the lookout for these hidden gems who can help us make a move in steals. But (more…)
Posted in Auction, Prices, Top 10 Misunderstood
Top 10 Most Misunderstood Fantasy Baseball Concepts: #4. FAAB
A close look at how much of a year’s stats were acquired by FAAB in Tout Wars NL (hitting and pitching) and how they affected the fortunes of specific teams should be enough to convince anyone of the importance of FAAB. As will a recap of how much of each stat (more…)
Posted in FAAB, Free, Top 10 Misunderstood
Top 10 Most Misunderstood Fantasy Baseball Concepts: #5. Player Projections
I’ve been banging this drum for the past few years, but I still hear people say, “I like my player projections bold. Go out on a limb, fer Gehrig’s sake!” That was what Wilton tried to do. Don’t remember Wilton? Well, at Baseball Prospectus, before there was PECOTA, there was (more…)
Posted in Projections, Top 10 Misunderstood
10 Most Misunderstood Fantasy Baseball Concepts: #6. The Replacement Player
Maybe the widespread discussion of VORP and WAR have straightened this one out, but once upon a time there was a lot of chatter about the Replacement Player when it came to fantasy baseball dollar values. The basic idea then and now is that each player has a value based (more…)
Posted in Free, Top 10 Misunderstood
Top 10 Most Misunderstood Fantasy Baseball Concepts: #8. Post Season Dollar Values.
A lot of the analysis in that two-part Most Misunderstood piece on the Hitting/Pitching budget split (No. 9 part 1, part 2) was built on information gleaned by comparing the price expert leagues paid for players on auction day with Post Season Dollar Values for players. That is, pricing what players’ (more…)
Posted in Basics, Free, Prices, Top 10 Misunderstood
Top 10 Most Misunderstood Fantasy Baseball Concepts: #9 The 65/35 Split. Part 2.
If you would like to catch up with the first part of this discussion read this. So, hitters and pitchers each earn half the fantasy value in a league, but on auction day we pay the hitters close to 70 percent of the money and pitchers a tad more than (more…)
Posted in Data, Free, Prices, Top 10 Misunderstood
Top 10 Most Misunderstood Fantasy Baseball Concepts: #9 The 65/35 Split. Part 1.
I was writing this story today, No. 9 of the Most Misunderstood Concepts, when I got a call to be on Jeff Erickson and Chris Liss’s SiriusXM radio show to talk about this very topic. Do they have ties to the NSA? Nah, it’s just hot stove time and we’re (more…)
Posted in Free, Introduction, Prices, Top 10 Misunderstood, Uncategorized
Top 10 Most Misunderstood Fantasy Baseball Concepts: 10. Position Scarcity
In shallow draft leagues position scarcity is definitely a factor, but in deep leagues much less so. And there nearly everyone calculates it incorrectly. How important is position scarcity? In auctions position scarcity isn’t a pricing issue. Even in shallow auctions. The key is making sure that the pool of (more…)
Posted in Basics, Free, Members, Top 10 Misunderstood
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