I’ve been writing this week about some comparisons I was making with 2013 pitching metrics and 2014 data.
One strong takeaway was an indication that fantasy owners weren’t valuing pitchers with low walk rates enough. Details here.
One weak takeaway was an indication that fantasy owners weren’t valuing pitchers with between 100 and 161 IP the previous season with low SIERA scores enough. Details here.
I knew that looking at only one year of data was potentially misleading, and indeed have found by correlating the 2012 metrics with 2013 earnings, there is only the slightest correlation between SIERA and those less-than-qualifying starters profits the next year. Whatever caused the 2013/14 correlation wasn’t there the year before.
The correlation between low walk rates and potential profits was also weaker than it was between 2013 and 2014, but it still existed.
I like applying these filters and running tests, trying to find any potential indicators for why a pitcher might have an up year that aren’t priced into our systems. But it’s important to remember that any edge found this way is likely to be small, and might be a good reason to pick one weak pitcher out of the endgame rather than another, not a reason to bid him up.
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