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PattonandCo.com: Talk Baseball Players NowProjecting X is Mike Podhorzer's excellent description of how he makes his very successful player projections. You can learn more about it at projectingx.com.
Category Archives: Projections
Some Category Valuation Observations for Roto Pricing
Rudy Gamble is running a series on player valuation over at Razzball.com, and he has lots of interesting things to say. One of the reasons for that is because he’s inquiring. He’s doing that most interesting thing, to me anyway, of trying to figure it out in public. The piece (more…)
Finding Undervalued Pitchers: More Data, Fewer Undervalued Pitchers
I’ve been writing this week about some comparisons I was making with 2013 pitching metrics and 2014 data. One strong takeaway was an indication that fantasy owners weren’t valuing pitchers with low walk rates enough. Details here. One weak takeaway was an indication that fantasy owners weren’t valuing pitchers with (more…)
Posted in Data, Projections
The FanGraphs Auction Calculator
FanGraphs posted a fantasy auction calculator today, or maybe they posted it yesterday. I found it today. Enter your league parameters and it will give you dollar values for the players your league will be buying. That’s the promise. One cool feature is you can bookmark the URL of your league (more…)
Posted in Auction, Basics, Prices, Projections
Finding Undervalued Pitchers: SIERA and FIP
Yesterday we ran correlations between various pitching metrics and fantasy baseball profits for pitchers, and found that most of the ways we evaluate pitchers—like strikeouts and ERA—influence a pitcher’s cost so much that they don’t help us predict profits. But we did discover that a pitcher’s walk rate wasn’t fully (more…)
Posted in Data, Math, Prices, Projections
Finding Undervalued Pitchers: Walk Rate
After I finished my look at correlation between 2013 pitching stats and 2014 fantasy baseball profits, I just had to look at which pitchers might bubble up this year because of their low walk rates last year. Hisashi Iwakuma, Jordan Zimmerman, Doug Fister, David Price, Masahiro Tanaka, and Clayton Kershaw (more…)
Posted in Data, Looking Back, Projections
The JUNE fantasy baseball earnings report is here!
You can access it here. You probably knew that the top pitchers of the month were Clayton Kershaw, Felix Hernandez and Masahiro Tanaka, but did you know that three very cheap ptchers finished 9-11? Yes, they would be Jake Arrieta, Sean Doolittle and Danny Duffy. On the hitting side the month’s (more…)
Posted in Data, Prices, Projections
Rotoman’s Agony: What Am I Supposed to Do With Perfection?
In the last two weeks my Tout Wars NL team has ascended, from 11th place on June 1 to fourth place today (yesterday I was in third). Then: Now: That’s a gain of 21 points in 19 days, but the gains were uneven. While I added four points in (more…)
Posted in Data, Prices, Projections
Expecting Success: How do the top players rank at the end of April?
Reading Ron Shandler’s story at USA Today yesterday, Fantasy’s First Round Has Been Filled With Busts, I realized in my recent series looking back at how fast starters and slow starters in April 2013 performed over the whole year, that I never looked at how the best players might do (more…)
Posted in Data, Prices, Projections
Are Component Pitching Measures Leading Indicators?
I don’t want to dwell on this too much right now, because it will take a lot more work to tease out more meaningful results. And lots of work has been done elsewhere (this is a good place to start), that does a far more comprehensive job than I’m taking (more…)
Posted in Data, Projections, Stat Projections
Park Factors and Handedness 2013
I’ve been meaning to take a look at special Park Factor situations. Park factors are of interest, of course, because they help us understand which ballparks are easier to hit in (and worse for pitchers) or easiest to pitch in (and worse for hitters). Take the stats of a team and (more…)
Posted in Ballparks, Basics, Free, Projections
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